America, Refounded
One way to divvy up the American Pie
No, we’re not ever going back to the way it was
George Washington doubted that the Constitution would last 20 years. Thomas Jefferson thought that it positively should not. There doesn’t seem to be much evidence that any of the founding generation thought it would be perpetual. Yet, here we are, 236 years since the Constitution went into effect.
The scheme of government took a beating due to the contradictions introduced by slavery. Those did not end with the Civil War, which was quickly followed by a strong national sentiment for reconciliation. The reconciliation came at the expense of the former slaves and their descendants. Unto this very day. Cupidity first, and empire later, provided further glue.
That glue is coming unstuck and when all of today’s favorite MAGA villains have vanished, the divisions that have opened in this century are not going to anneal.
One Way Forward
We don’t have to be a single nation. It’s a wide continent that can support a dozen good-sized nations. We can, if we wished, have nations with populations the size of middle-tier European Community nations that punch well above their weight economically. We could have the equivalent of six Germanies (one of which is a double), five Spains, a France, an Italy and a Poland.
All but two of these new nations would have strong political majorities, as measured by the 2024 election, with margins greater than 10% of the two-candidate vote. The exceptions are Powell and Midlands. Powell’s margin in favor of Trump was only 5%, while Midlands is a problematic less-than-one-percent.
Take a look at the league tables while I work on the detailed write ups.
Invitation to play nation builder
I don’t expect that my take will meet with universal acclaim. Everyone will have different ideas of how to re-jigger the map.
In the comments, suggest different constellations. I can analyze the factors at a county level. So, for example, you don’t think that I should have swapped Clinton and Essex Counties in New York for the Western Connecticut and Greater Bridgeport regions in Connecticut, I can undo that. Or have a whack at dividing Midlands to create a more stable arrangement politically.
I agree that after the current crisis — however it resolves — the USA will not be able to hold together as it's currently constituted. It's very hard for me to imagine it breaking up without lots of violence, but that doesn't mean that it won't break up.
I agree with your analysis that slavery (and white supremacy) are the root cause of most of our divisions. And that it's too late now to try to go back fix things.
But I also wonder, given current trends all over the world, how much longer the Westphalian model of sovereign nation states will hold up.
Coming from Idaho, I can assure you the thinking of northern Idaho, as well as the geography, is very different from southern Idaho. I suspect the very northern portion would much rather belong to upper Washington state and northwest Montana.